TrendForce predicts a boom in 5G devices; global smartphone production recovery led by Apple and Samsung next year

Global smartphone production took a dive due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent devastating shortage of semiconductors. A new market research report, however, predicts that production could recover as early as next year. The typical smartphone replacement cycle and rising demand in the developing markets may very well lead to production growing to 1.39 billion units. 5G smartphones are leading the way with almost 50% of the market share as manufacturers learn to deal with the pandemic-related challenges.

According to the TrendForce report, production of smartphone devices should hit pre-pandemic levels next year. The year-on-year growth is forecasted at 3.8%. The predictions for 2022 include expectations of approximately 1.39 billion smartphone units being produced. 600 million units will be 5G phones, with a 45.7% market share, according to the report.

The 5G smartphone market share is likely to reach 37.4%, with about 500 million units manufactured. While the Chinese government encourages the commercialization of 5G, resulting in an 80% market share in China, the report says that infrastructure build-out and rising 5G tariffs could lead to a higher global market share in 2022. 5G component shortages are also possible due to limited foundry capacities.

About 276 million units may be produced by Samsung in 2022. As stated in the report, foldable phones (i.e. Galaxy Z Flip 3 & Galaxy Z Fold 3), and other products, such as S Pen have allowed it to preserve its market share in the premium segment. Samsung could also face competition in developed markets, meanwhile, emerging markets will maintain its demand for entry-level phones.

Apple may sell about 243 million units with a 5.4% year-over-year rise. The company claims that in Q1 it may release a new iPhone SE (2020) that should include a 4.7-inch display, 5G connectivity and an A15 chipset. Four smartphone models are expected to be presented by Apple in the second half of 2022. These models could be inherently more expensive because of the rising component prices.

An increase in the market share held by Chinese manufacturers (Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo) is also reported. Xiaomi will manufacture around 220 million units, bringing its market share to 16 percent (incl. company subsidiaries: Mi, Redmi, POCO, and Black Shark). Vivo and Oppo may produce approximately 149 million and 208 million units, respectively.