Despite supply chain problems, 5.3% growth in worldwide smartphone shipments anticipated in 2021
Published : Tuesday, 07 December, 2021Despite the major supply chain problems, a 5.3% YoY growth is forecasted by the end of 2021, say industry experts. IDC has estimated that the year will end with approximately 1.35 billion smartphone shipments, with 5G devices taking center stage and accounting for 50% of the total global sales by the end of the following year.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker has reduced the predicted growth indicators for 2021 and 2022 because of the component shortages, fewer Q3 shipments and continued troubles with logistics. Supply chain problems may very well continue half-way into 2022.
Smartphone shipment growth forecast has dropped from 7.4% to 5.3% for the current year, and from 3.4% to 3.0% for next year. IDC predicts “a modest but healthy 3.5 percent five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR)” in a 5-year forecast. A growing number of shipments may be attributed to increased demand, lowered average sale prices, and the ongoing transition from feature phones to smartphones.
Q3 is expected to close with lower indicators, because the market has fallen at almost two times the expected rate due to the same reasons: supply chain problems and logistical issues that troubled every single major market player, no exceptions, say IDC experts.
There are certainly regional differences in the numbers, and the market research firm claims that single-digit declines are expected everywhere, while even greater drops will plague Asia-Pacific (Japan excluded) and China. The former will see a 9.1% plunge, while China is predicted to see a 8.4% dive YoY.
There may be a positive side to this situation, namely, the solid rise in the first half of the current year everywhere except China assisted in creating a positive image of overall growth in 2021.
· As far as 5G phones are concerned, the manufacturers who had a greater share of this type of devices were less severely hit than those who produced a greater share of 4G phones. This is due to the fact that mostly 4G components were affected by supply chain delays.
· Android device manufacturers were harder hit than those of iOS devices.
· The shortage of 4G components may last until mid-2022 is likely to expedite the introduction of 5G tech on a wider scale. The ASP of both 4G and 5G devices is expected to drop between now and 2025.
· This forecast still points to Android peak average selling prices at $265 at year-end 2021, but iOS will close the year at a shocking $950. This, however, may be the top of the pinnacle, as prices are expected to decrease throughout 2022 and further on. 5G devices may fall by 14.5% in 2022, while 4G phones may lose over 18%.