Apple Watch Series 4 proves very popular in pre-order period, 5.8-inch iPhone XS below forecasts
The near future is looking good for both Apple Watch Series 4 and iPhone XS Max after the first weekend of pre-order is over. As of now, these two products’ shipping estimates are positive, while the demand for the 5.8” iPhone XS model does not look as optimistic and is under the forecasted figures.
The premium version’s (iPhone XS Max) expected shipping times reveal that the demand for this model is perfectly aligned with the expert expectations.
Launch shipments are already lagging behind between a week and two weeks, which probably means that the ‘high price strategy’ implemented by the company in this case was the right path to take. XS Max is proving especially welcome on the Chinese market, with its highly coveted features like the gold body option, support for dual SIM, and a more-than-generous 6.5” display.
The new eSIM-technology based dual SIM solution implemented by Apple was already adapted to Apple Watch and iPad, however, carrier restrictions don’t allow to market this technology within China. Just for the Chinese market, Apple took a detour and remodeled the phone to accommodate two actual physical SIMs, which fit onto one SIM tray.
It’s worth noting that as of now, the average shipping times are significantly less than those forecasted prior to 2017 iPhone X release. In fact, the current times are 2-3 times shorter, but this is most likely due to the improvements to made to the supply/shipping network, rather than the lowered demand. In fact, experts are expecting the new iPhone shipments to contain an impressive 25-30% share of XS Max model.
When the new iPhones are released in October 2018, the demand for the smaller 5.8” XS is below analyst expectations, as most of the models are expected to be delivered to the customers right on launch day. It appears that most consumers have an interest in iPhone XS Max and iPhone XR. The XR model is the 6.1” LCD screen mid-range iPhone
Experts are also lowering the expected iPhone XS share estimates from 15-20% to 10-15% pf all of the new iPhone model shipments.
The iPhone XR is, in fact, picking up the share that's freed up by the lowered demand for the XS model. Its expected forecasts are a 55-60% share of all new iPhone model shipments, up from a 50-55% forecast. The demand for the aluminum iPhone model is fueled by the lowered price ($749 in the US market) and the new dual-SIM support now available in China.
The peak shipment time of XS and XS Max models is forecast for October, while XR is expected to begin shipping and increasing the supply chain momentum in the same period. The new 2018 models are expected to increase year-to-year to 75-80 million units.
In certain launch countries, Apple Watch Series 4 is doing extremely well, and numerous models are actually out of stock, according to Apple. New functions, such ECG capabilities and advanced heart monitoring.
The new ECG support implemented in the Apple Watch has availability limited to the US, where FDA clearance has been obtained for retail sales, and should be rolled out later on in 2018. When the Series 4 was unveiled, Apple COO mentioned that ECG capabilities may be made available in other countries, yet it's still unclear when that may become a reality.
Up to 18 million Apple Watch units may ship out in 2018, and Series 4 account for 50-55% of the total.